gm sideways and down market participants, another week of not much so I’ll get straight into it.
Blast
The Blast TGE is FINALLY just days away, $BLAST will go live on June 27th. Blur stakers and Blast gold farmers are about to see the results of 6+ months of hard work and decide whether it was worth it or not.
I was chatting to a friend yesterday about the ‘airdrop fractal’. Back in 2021/2022 there was pretty free trade on high profile airdrop tokens that generally followed a similar pattern and could be traded with the same framework, slightly adjusted each time.
Wait until X% had been claimed and enough dumping had occurred > buy when the chart is looking bottomed and showing strength > sell 1-7 day after. For $BLUR the optimal entry and exit were 30mins after launch and 4.5 days later for a 130% gain, ARB is another notable one from that era.
But as time goes on the market gets more efficient and these ‘free’ trades get arb’d away.
The ones that people had low expectations of that ended up massively outperforming (like $BLUR), were the beginnings of mass airdrop dilution. User A sees User B get outsized $$ for very little effort and they want a piece of that pie. Eventually the pool of airdrop farmers 1000x’s and the portion of everyones share of the pie becomes 1000x smaller. This goes on until the size of the airdrops becomes too small to warrant the effort on most people’s behalves and they give up, until one day something outperforms again and the airdrop farming cycle begins anew.
Apologies for the rambling, where I was going with that is that I think Blast is towards end of that cycle. It was not in anyway under farmed so expectations are higher and disappointment more likely. This generally means that the price of the token has less ‘fuel’. It’s the under the radar trades that catch the majority of people offside, not the crowded ones. Still, because of that, we may get enough dumping that there is an airdrop fractal to be traded.
Despite many attributing the chain’s success to date purely to farming, Blast now sits as the 6th largest chain by TVL at just over $2b. This means it’s ahead of Base, Polygon, Optimism and Avalanche.
Some of the top DeFi protocols on Blast have amassed sizeable TVL’s. Thruster sits over $500m and Juice at $470m. There are also some underdogs on the rise. Wasabi massively increased their offerings since launching on Blast. What was once an NFT options platform now also serves perps and vaults across a multitude of different tokens.
The Wasabi vault has seen a threefold increase in the last 90 days with consistent deposits. It will be interesting to see what large LP’s of the major protocols do come TGE and the cessation of gold distribution.
I’d like to believe that Blast has such bad sentiment across CT that there will be room for token upside and further chain growth. But a lot of people including a lot of whales have been in Blur staking and Blast farming since day one. No doubt that Pacman will be revealing layer two of the incentives upon release. Yesterday nyax found some potential testing contracts that allude to token vesting.
The first Blur airdrop was a huge wealth creation event, lots of small traders hit it big for the first time. I was said small trader and I think I ended up with a low five figure airdrop from maybe 10e in volume over the whole season. Similarly to the initial Blur airdrop, expectations are fairly low so I think there is a chance people are underestimating it.
Pacman is the master of incentives and originator of the famed points program, we’ll see if he can one up himself with Blast.
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thanks for article