DeFi Market Overview
-Will Sheehan
Onchain Risk Reversal?
Coming off a bleak stretch for onchain activity, this week provided signs of risk rekindling back.
The CRV trade sparked by the Mango Hacker shorting CRV against USDC printed degens a quick return as his position got liquidated. It is very unlikely the attacked could have net profited on the trade, but his donation to motivated momentum traders could spark momentum as wins start popping back up in the market.
DeFi Stables Reroll
Curve announced their vaunted stablecoin design this week. As expected with curve content the paper is mathy and terse. In short, deposited collateral enters a range order (similar to a uniswap-v3 position) with a knockout at the liquidation price. At a high level the protocol is closely aligned with the maker CDP model. Stables are minted against volatile collateral with an enshrined curve pool to stabilize. Ultimately DAI was unable to scale on ETH collateral alone, but curve has a way of exceeding expectations in my exp. so we will see. $GHO from Aave is also presumably around the corner, these two assets are very compelling catalysts for Q1 DeFi.
APE
APE staking seems to be back on track - APE, BAYC, and MAYC all moved on the news/narrative momentum. APE staking will be by far the largest DeFi/NFT crossover project, the novel form of farming will certainly be one to watch, and the market actually seems to have some risk appetite left to participate.
The counter here is stETH lingering below peg which has historically been a strong risk off indicator.
NFT Market Overview
-kezfourtwez
gm jpeg enjoyers, not much has changed in NFT market conditions since last week. Liquidity is still in a downtrend off the back of the FTX fallout and general market confidence is still shaken. Bluechips had a good week and most rose 20-50% off the lows as ETH stablised around $1200. Though, all it took was a 3% red candle and some fake WETH fud for that confidence to leave the market, just as quickly as it arrived.
Overall, the general vibe is still very much risk off, though a few new projects have come roaring out the gate this week, as well as an interesting partnership and some long awaited and highly anticipated news.
Performance highlights:
RarePass has almost doubled in price since last edition, from Ξ22 to Ξ38
Celmates minted on Monday for Ξ0.3, over Ξ2.3k in volume and some large vertical sweeps has taken them to where they sit now at a Ξ0.75 floor price
Valhalla opened on Wednesday around Ξ0.8 after a Ξ0.5 mint, with Ξ4.6k in volume since, the floor price has retraced and now sits at Ξ0.53 just slightly above mint
BAKC is up 55% from from Ξ4.3 to Ξ6.7, this comes off the back of the first roadmap related Yuga tweet since the Otherside back in March
Celmates
I’m not going to pretend to know a whole lot about this one as I don’t own any and am just doing my research right meow, but the art is incredibly appealing to me. I grew up watching old looney tunes VHS’s, and grew a fond appreciation of the elbow grease, creativity and finesse that went into the art style and animation. Everything was accentuated, it was the era of slapstick and if Bugs hit Elmer with a mallet, you could be sure that Elmer would depress to the thickness of rolled up newspaper whilst rapidly expanding horizontally. Like a tennis ball hitting the court in slow motion, or a hydraulic press coming down on an elastic stress ball.
McBess is an incredible artist that has adopted and adapted the rubber hose style, think the first ever episode of Mickey mouse, or Popeye. McBess has Celmates is his first large scale pfp project, consisting of the 4207 inmates at the Steel Hose Penitentiary.
Celmates began minting on Wednesday for Ξ0.33 each, there was some problems with the allowlisted addresses but that didn’t stop the collection setting out with a bang. The initial mint concluded with a brief drop back to the Ξ0.5 range which happens almost like clockwork these days. It’s the moment in time where whitelist grinders that are securing their profit lower their asks right into the bids of the real project purveyors. Almost the entire circulating supply has been turned over since then, Ξ2.3k in volume and a solid out the gate floor price, currently ranging between Ξ0.7 and Ξ0.9.
Though, if you’ve been reading the last few issues, you already know I’m finding it hard to keep both feet in any project at the moment. I feel like a broken record, but the market just doesn’t have the confidence or liquidity to sustain every new project currently. You either need to get in and out fast or be of the opinion that your favourite project will make it out the other side of the bear market, and buy in for the long haul knowing your liquidity is tied up. The decision to take the opportunity cost is a difficult one atm.
Celmates are currently in the pre reveal stage and I can’t find any concrete dates, I don’t recommend buying until reveal takes place though. I would love to gamble on pulling that sweet ‘friendo’ up there but we all know how that usually goes. I do love the art though and will be picking some up post reveal if the price is right. McBess is a tried and true artist, but if he can solidify himself in the crypto artist category, these will become increasingly valuable in years to come, and a wonderful eyesore too.
Chimpers x TMNT
For months the founders of the Chimpers have been dropping hints that they were secretly working with a large web2 IP franchise. Since the beginning of November Timpers has been dropping new pixel graphics of Master Chimpo and the Chimps trekking across the icy tundra, to find a giant green beam heading into the sky. Green being the keyword here, everything has been green, green, green in the Chimpverse this month. The Chimpers are notoriously good at community building and rallying their cult following. In classic Chimpers style, a sea of green backgrounded chimps were created and donned as pfp’s this month in the lead up.
On Friday they announced a partnership with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Paramount. “Mystery, surprise and reward” is the name of the Chimpers game and this time is no different, we don’t have many details about what the partnership will entail yet, but there was an AMA with the team and @TMNT which definitely contains some alpha. I look forward to hearing more, the playful and fun nature of both IP’s make this a match made in heaven.
The Trial of Jimmy the Monkey
Yuga has firmly planted their first roadmap related tweet since March. If you don’t know, they have a long history of radio silence when it comes to any sort of material announcements regarding project updates, until they don’t. Back in August 2021 the BAYC account tweeted “Fuck it. Mutants Saturday” just before debuting Mutants into a thirsty bull market. Then again in early March 2022 the BAYC account tweeted “fuck it, again.” with a link to the never before seen and incedibly intriguing Otherside website.
Today, Yuga revealed that the long awaited ‘Trial of Jimmy the Monkey’ will begin around Christmas. The trial is mysteriously referred to in the BAYC roadmap, but in tightlipped Yuga fashion, very little is known.
As usual, Yuga was bang on with their marketing materials. The graphic sings a unique pre-digital, illustrative, almost ‘Mad Magazine’ style. Most of the BAYC demographic is over 25 and this style is nostalgic for people that grew up in the age of the comic book, before the rise of the internet.
Jimmy is pictured in chains on the roadmap, to his right is a banner containing the words “MD vs MM” and a paw print. To his left, what can only be described as mecha monkey fist. The speculation is that the trial is a game surrounding a battle between mecha dogs (MD) and mecha monkeys (MM). Some more speculation from the mouth of an ape here. Off the back of this tweet, BAKC experienced a huge influx of volume. 180 trades in a few hours, Ξ1200 in volume and more than a 30% rise in floor price.
Thanks for reading and bye for now, stay on top of the markets with Parsec and we’ll see you next week.
ok
superbb